Why Donald Trump’s Trade War Strategy Doesn’t Make Sense

Donald Trump’s trade war strategy, particularly his effort to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States, simply does not make sense. It’s an idea rooted more in nostalgia than in economic reality. The notion that America can reclaim its former manufacturing dominance is, at best, a fantasy.

The Harsh Reality of U.S. Manufacturing

America is no longer equipped to produce many of the goods that we currently import. The infrastructure, supply chains, and workforce required for large-scale domestic manufacturing have significantly diminished over the decades. Former President Barack Obama once acknowledged this hard truth, stating that certain manufacturing jobs were gone and would never return.

Let’s consider a scenario where the U.S. tries to bring back production of everyday consumer goods—televisions, gadgets, and the inexpensive products that fill dollar stores. Who is going to make these products? American workers demand—and deserve—fair wages. However, paying workers $30, $40, or even $50 an hour to produce goods that are currently made for a fraction of the cost overseas would have serious consequences.

The Inflationary Impact

If American factories started paying high wages to manufacture goods domestically, companies would have to pass those costs on to consumers. That $500 television could suddenly cost $5,000, just like it did decades ago when American-made Zenith TVs were considered luxury items, only affordable after significant savings. Is that really the economic future we want?

The Rise of Automation

Even if manufacturing jobs were to return, they wouldn’t be the same as before. The industry has changed drastically, with automation playing an increasingly dominant role. Many factories today rely heavily on robotics, and that trend is only accelerating. Within five to ten years, the majority of these jobs would likely be automated, making the push to bring them back largely pointless.

The Common Sense Test

Trump often speaks about applying the "common sense test" to policies. But when you look at his trade war strategy through that lens, it simply doesn’t hold up. While the idea of revitalizing American manufacturing may sound appealing in a political speech, the economic realities tell a different story. The world has changed, and clinging to an outdated vision of manufacturing will not bring back the prosperity of the past.

Instead of focusing on bringing back jobs that no longer fit into today’s economy, the U.S. should invest in future industries—technology, clean energy, and advanced manufacturing. A smarter approach would be to prepare the workforce for the jobs of tomorrow rather than chasing an unrealistic dream of the past.